Tariffs were supposed to reduce dependence on China.
And on paper, they did.
US–China trade fell by nearly 30%.
That looks like a clear outcome.
But something doesn’t add up.
Because the system doesn’t behave like it lost 30%.
So, the real question is not: “Is trade with China falling?”
It is: 👉 “If trade is down 30%… why doesn’t the system feel smaller?”
👉 What most of the market is still missing here: