The US and Iran say a peace framework has been reached.
It is expected to be signed in Geneva on Friday, 19 June.
But the full text is still not public.
And this is not a full reset.
It is a 60-day test.
Markets moved first: Brent fell 4%, US crude almost 5%.
Shipping will move slower.
Ships do not return because headlines change.
They return when crews are safe, insurers are comfortable, and carriers can rebuild schedules.
So the question is no longer only whether Hormuz can reopen.
It is whether Hormuz can become reliable again.
Here are the ๐ things to watch:


