🚨Hapag-Lloyd Q3 2025: Rates Crash, Volumes Surge — Discipline Over Luck!
🔥Rates collapsed, costs surged — only execution kept Hapag-Lloyd afloat.
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Q3 2025 delivers the exact same paradox we saw at Maersk — but with a uniquely Hapag-Lloyd flavour:
📉 Freight rates down –14% YoY (Q3: USD 1,391/TEU → 1,612)
📈 Volumes up +6% YoY in Q3, +9% YTD
🚢 Gemini turbocharges schedule reliability to ~90%
💸 Costs explode due to port disruption + Cape diversions + Gemini phase-in
🏗️ Terminals grow revenue double-digit, but margins fall
Hapag-Lloyd didn’t win the quarter — but it did survive the worst market conditions with discipline, not luck.
1️⃣ Why did Hapag-Lloyd’s revenue fall in Q3?
2️⃣ How bad was the freight rate collapse?
3️⃣ If rates fell, how did Liner Shipping stay profitable?
4️⃣ Is the Gemini Cooperation really working?
5️⃣ What drove the strong volume growth?
6️⃣ What happened to unit costs?
7️⃣ How did the Terminal business perform?
8️⃣ What happened to cash flow and net debt?
9️⃣ What is the biggest risk going into 2026?
🔟 What does the outlook for Q4–2026 look like?
and
🚨 THE BIG PICTURE
🔝 Top 3 to Watch in 2026
Let’s break down Q3 2025 in 10 powerful questions — fast, clear, and brutally insightful.
1️⃣ Why did revenue fall in Q3?
Because rates collapsed faster than volumes grew.
Q3 revenue: USD 5.46B (–5% YoY)
9M revenue: USD 16.05B (+5% YoY), thanks to +9% volume growth
💡 Volumes saved the top line. Without the +9% lift, revenue would be down double-digit like Maersk.
2️⃣ How bad was the rate collapse?
Average freight rate:
USD 1,391/TEU in Q3 (–14% YoY)
USD 1,397/TEU for 9M (–4.8% YoY)
Trade details:
Asia–Europe: 1,244 → 1,699
Pacific: 1,531 → 1,888
💡 Still higher than pre-COVID levels, but way below the 2024 spike. Maersk saw a –31% YoY collapse — Hapag’s drop is milder but still painful.