Everyone can see the ships coming.
The containership orderbook has reached 13.6m TEU.
That is almost 40% of the current fleet.
On paper, the story looks simple.
More ships.
More supply.
More pressure on rates.
But the market is sending a different signal.
Ships are still hard to find.
Carriers are still fixing vessels years ahead.
And charter rates remain strong.
So what is the market seeing that the orderbook alone does not show?
And when does future supply really become overcapacity?
Here are 5️⃣ signals behind it:
1️⃣ The 40% headline hides a split
The total orderbook is almost 40% of the fleet.
But not every ship size looks the same.