Sharp call on MSC's capacity overhang risking 2027 rate collapses. The tight charter market absorbing 37% of thier fleet is the real wildcard here, not just the orderbook numbers. Had a freind working in liner ops who said MSC's recent buying spree reminded him of the 2008-2009 cycle, except this time there's no organic demand growth signal to justify it. Volume guarantees sound good untill everyone rushes for the door at once.
Exactly — the charter exposure is the real pressure point.
With ~37% chartered, flexibility vanishes just when discipline is required. That’s how downturns turn brutal. 2008–09 is a fair comparison — only this time coordination delays the shock, it doesn’t avoid it.
If exits aren’t phased, volume guarantees become accelerators, not shields.
Sharp call on MSC's capacity overhang risking 2027 rate collapses. The tight charter market absorbing 37% of thier fleet is the real wildcard here, not just the orderbook numbers. Had a freind working in liner ops who said MSC's recent buying spree reminded him of the 2008-2009 cycle, except this time there's no organic demand growth signal to justify it. Volume guarantees sound good untill everyone rushes for the door at once.
Exactly — the charter exposure is the real pressure point.
With ~37% chartered, flexibility vanishes just when discipline is required. That’s how downturns turn brutal. 2008–09 is a fair comparison — only this time coordination delays the shock, it doesn’t avoid it.
If exits aren’t phased, volume guarantees become accelerators, not shields.