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🚨Spot Rates in Freefall — Can Global Carriers Avoid a 2026 Crash?

🔥Overcapacity and tariffs loom — is a 2026 crash inevitable?

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Maritime Analytica
Sep 30, 2025
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🔥 Greetings, Maritime Mavericks!

Container shipping is once again at a crossroads.

Freight rates, which briefly soared on crises and politics, have now fallen back to where they were before the Red Sea attacks.

What does this mean?

Not just another dip — but a glimpse into the fragile balance of global trade, carriers’ survival tactics, and the looming storm of 2026.

  • 📉 Back to Pre–Red Sea Levels!

  • ⏳ Lessons from 2023 — Replaying in 2025!

  • 🚢 Capacity: The Elephant in the Room!

  • 💰 Carriers Liquidity: The Big Cushion!

  • ⚖️ Global Demand vs. Tariffs

  • 🔮 What 2026 Might Look Like?

  • 🏅 Maritime Analytica Insight

Let’s unpack the story.


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chart, bar chart

📉 Back to Pre–Red Sea Levels!

  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has sunk to its lowest level since December 2023.

  • On the Asia–US west coast, rates are now below break-even: just $1,460 per FEU.

  • Asia–Europe lanes tell the same story — SCFI North Europe at $1,942 per FEU, the weakest since late 2023.

💡In short: spot pricing has erased two years of volatility-driven gains.


⏳ Lessons from 2023 — Replaying in 2025!

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