Will Freight Rates Really Fall 30% in 2027?

The forecast points down. But today's market tells another story.

A 30% fall in spot freight rates is now forecast.

Yet Maersk’s latest average ocean rate rose 46% y-o-y in Q3.

Ships remain heavily used.

And more capacity is on the way.

This matters for 2027 contracts, budgets and profits.

So what should the industry really prepare for?

Here are 5️⃣ signals behind the forecast:

---

1️⃣ The 30% figure tells only part of the story